Good Luck With Those Assumptions
Now that some semblance of sanity is finally returning to the United States, we are seeing very clearly how badly the COVID panickers have failed. The experts said we had to respond and had to respond drastically. Yet, our response was moronic and driven by fear. It accomplished nothing besides tanking the economy.
The media definitely flamed the fear of this and continue to do so as of this writing. But most of my readers already know the media is garbage. You guys wouldn’t trust them in the first place. So how did this get so bad? How did everyone fall for it?
Easy. There was another group that exacerbated this issue far beyond what it actually was:
The “Experts” Suck At Their Jobs
In this article titled “Epidemiologist Who Estimated 2.2 Million Dead In U.S., 500,000 In U.K. Dramatically Downgrades Projection” they state that:
Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson painted the grimmest of pictures: 2.2 million dead people in the U.S., 500,000 in the U.K.
His Imperial College London model was heavily cited, including by The New York Times, and has helped guide government decision-making, which has occasionally bordered on hysteria.
Now that same expert (Neil Ferguson) resigned from his position because he skirted those “essential” social distancing methods that he pushed to bang his married mistress:
The United Kingdom government scientist who advised Prime Minister Boris Johnson to put Britain on lockdown over the coronavirus outbreak has resigned following news that he violated his own social-distancing guidelines to meet his mistress.
Professor Neil Ferguson, 51, had his married mistress over at his house just after he had spent two weeks in quarantine after testing positive for the coronavirus, The Telegraph reported.
Also his model was bullsh*t:
Earlier this week, Ferguson — who himself has contracted the virus — testified before the Houses of Parliament and said the death toll in the U.K. could be less than 20,000.
The United States “experts” also pushed the same hilariously incorrect estimates and models:
One prominent model in the shutdown is from the University of Washington, from their Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), funded by Bill and Melinda Gates. How closely does what they predicted track with reality so far? Turns out, not so well.
On April 4th, for example, the IHME model predicted there would be between 120,963 and 203,436 Americans requiring hospitalization, with the average of that range being 164,745. In reality, there were 18,998.
That’s just hospitalizations, when it comes to intensive care beds, the difference between the projections and reality show an equally large gap. The average projected ICU beds needed on April 4th was 31,057; the reality was 4,686. That’s across the country, not just New York. Even after factoring in the caveats about missing states, that’s a miss akin to swinging and striking out on a pickoff to second base.
So what other models are federal and state authorities using that justify the actions they’ve taken? The simple, horrifying answer is we just don’t know. The government isn’t sharing their models and data with the public, which is odd.
Mitigation efforts like social distancing and the like may be a factor, but these models supposedly took that into consideration.
As of this writing, there are 7,810 deaths in the United States attributed to the pandemic. More than 7,000 Americans die every single day, on average, of everything. Over the course of this pandemic, this has amounted to a noticeable but still mild uptick above that average over the course of it. Add to that the directive from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to count any death tangentially related to COVID-19, and you have to wonder if that number actually holds. That directive reads, “COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death.” (The emphasis in bolding is theirs.)
But wait! There’s more:
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at Washington University lowered its death toll projection by nearly 20,000 Wednesday, and now predicts that just over 60,000 Americans will die in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The IHME model also lowered its predictions for the number of hospital beds and ventilators that will be needed on the country’s projected peak usage date by one-third each — now at 94,249 and 16,524, respectively.
The drastic reduction is part of a growing trend among all major models predicting U.S. deaths. Generally speaking, as social distancing methods have been taken into account in later models, death toll predictions in those models have been lowered significantly.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said the previously announced best-case scenario of 100,000 to 240,000 COVID-19 deaths was probably an overestimate.
On March 31, President Donald Trump and the White House coronavirus task force announced that, with social distancing measures in place, the best outcome for the United States would be for 100,000 to 240,000 Americans to die during this wave of COVID-19.
If we didn’t do anything, they said at that time, as many as 2.2 million people could die.
Pulling it back? It didn’t take long after that estimate, which was alarming to many, for some of the more prominent projection models to revise their estimates downward. Fewer cases, fewer hospitalizations, fewer deaths.
Before COVID the sheep always told us to “trust the experts“. They had massive disdain for anyone that dared to doubt an experts opinion on something. Now, at least we have ammo if they come around again with that same garbage later.
It is amazing to me that none of these “experts” understood how math works. If we weren’t testing people that are asymptomatic of course the numbers would be off. We’d be skewing the denominator of the death rate by only tracking those obviously critical.
So it seemed higher. Now reality is punching them in the face.
This result should not be shocking to the “experts”. Pretty much all researchers understand that a model is only as good as your assumptions. If they were going in with obviously wrong assumptions, what the hell did they think the model was going to do?
And these guys are “experts”. Yeah, clearly. Maybe they’re experts at virology but they are not experts at high school level math.
These idiots could have been caught and cast out had we had a competent media to investigate their bogus claims. But we don’t. We have a media that survives on fear and bending to China. Along with a bunch of experts that don’t know basic math. Winning combination.
In fact, it’s such a winning combination that it tanked our economy and blew our unemployment rate up to levels no one thought humanely possible.
I know this article is troubling but I’m a glass half full kind of dude. So let’s look on the bright side. We have a few benefits we can take away from this. Now we have:
- Hard evidence on how evil China is.
- Information on how afraid our media is of saying a single thing bad about China.
- Experience on how important it is to fight against foreign dependency.
- Knowledge on how to prepare if something like this happens again.
Along with some hard evidence on why we shouldn’t blindly “trust the experts“.
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