Paul Krugman: Possibly The Worst Prediction In All Of Human History
Paul Krugman, everybody:
Before you think this is a bogus/exaggerated meme, check leftist Snopes. Even they admit it is a true prediction:
You know it’s a bad prediction when the rabid leftists are even fact-checking other rabid leftists.
The best part, though, is Krugman’s response decades later.
He appears just as prideful and conceited as in 1998:
Paul Krugman Responds To All The People Throwing Around His Old Internet Quote
We emailed Krugman for a comment on the quote and here’s his explanation:
Well, two things.
First, look at the whole piece. It was a thing for the Times magazine’s 100th anniversary, written as if by someone looking back from 2098, so the point was to be fun and provocative, not to engage in careful forecasting; I mean, there are lines in there about St. Petersburg having more skyscrapers than New York, which was not a prediction, just a thought-provoker.
But the main point is that I don’t claim any special expertise in technology — I almost never make technological forecasts, and the only reason there was stuff like that in the 98 piece was because the assignment required that I do that sort of thing. The issues about Bitcoin, however, are not technological! Everyone agrees that it’s technically very sweet. But does it work as money? That’s a very different kind of question.
And the fact that people are throwing around my 98 quote actually shows that they don’t get this point — that they’re confusing technology with monetary economics.
Complete avoidance of addressing the failed prediction along with trying to distance his current predictions from the past ones? Check. Obfuscating the topic by mixing in monetary economics versus technology? Check. No direct admission of being wrong, implying the inability to be humble? Check.
But the most hilarious piece of this response is the elitism and conceitedness still involved by subtly implanting the idea that he is a monetary economics expert (just not a technology expert), even when answering a question about a prediction he got horrifically wrong. It takes a whole extra level of vain arrogance to perform such a feat. The question (the internet’s effect on the economy) is literally a direct economic question. To try to switch it to a technology question two decades later is devious but unsurprising.
Let’s reword his reply in a more direct manner:
- “Hah, you plebs. You just don’t understand. I’m a monetary economics expert, and this is a technology question. Of course you plebs miss the point, because you don’t know the difference. And in case you don’t buy that lie, then just realize my prediction was actually only to get you thinking. It wasn’t even an actual prediction. Duh. Oh, did I mention that I’m a monetary economics expert?
I get it, people make predictions and are wrong about them on occasion. That happens. I certainly fail in half of my own predictions. But when people make predictions that are wrong constantly, it is a red flag. And when people make predictions that are incredibly dumb, like the internet not amounting to more than a fax machine for instance, that is also a red flag. You probably should not trust people that have two glaring red flags for decades.
I’ve written on this individual before. Find it here: Be Skeptical of Experts: The Paul Krugman Experience.
I never understood why boomers still listen to this guy. But he is like a drug for some of the older generations. It’s truly fascinating; some people just love being intellectually abused. The guy can be wrong five thousand times and people still tune in to take his predictions at face value.
People like Paul Krugman and Jim Cramer are antiprophets. Whatever they say, the opposite is near universally likely to occur. It is truly an uncanny ability of theirs to predict the antithesis of what they originally proclaim.
Now, make sure to note that both of these two antiprophets have made recent predictions about artificial intelligence (AI). They both claim that AI is going to be slowly rolled out and largely ineffective. According to these two “experts”, AI won’t be a big deal at all.
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